Projected path

The Bracket

The most-likely (“chalk”) path, with each slot's stage-reach probability from the model — the % is how often a team reaches that round; the dimmed side and the hover list are the alternate futures. Played rounds show the real result (final score, actual winner) and feed the projection forward; rounds not yet played stay probability-led. Connector weight tracks how likely each path is. The champion figure reconciles with the model. (Stage-level, not per-slot occupancy — the sim emits round-reach odds.)

Live · 2026-07-20 · Day 40/39🏆 Projected champion: Spain50.2%

Finalreal score · actual winnerLivein play · provisional72%projected · stage-reach %

Path explorer

Croatia

Croatia were knocked out in the Round of 32 — there's no path left to trace. Pick another nation to explore its remaining route.

Tap a team in an undecided match to force them through — a what-if, not the model.

Round of 32