40,000 simulations
The Model
All 48 teams across every stage probability — sortable. Champion %, finalist %, reach-SF/QF/R16/R32, win-group %, expected group points and mean finish, from 40,000 simulations conditioned on results to date.
As of 2026-06-19 · Day 9/39
Full forecast
| Team | Champion▼ | Final | SF | QF | R16 | R32 | Win grp | Advance | xPts | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1ArgentinaJ | 26.1% | 38.0% | 56.0% | 70.3% | 79.8% | 100% | 92.7% | 100% | 8.35 | 8.3 |
| 2FranceI | 15.4% | 28.0% | 42.3% | 58.0% | 85.8% | 100% | 85.9% | 100% | 8.05 | 9.0 |
| 3BrazilC | 12.5% | 21.2% | 36.7% | 58.6% | 75.2% | 99.4% | 69.4% | 99.4% | 6.34 | 10.6 |
| 4EnglandL | 9.3% | 17.2% | 34.0% | 56.6% | 81.7% | 100% | 93.9% | 100% | 8.16 | 10.0 |
| 5SpainH | 8.2% | 16.4% | 29.9% | 41.4% | 61.4% | 94.6% | 58.6% | 94.6% | 5.37 | 14.4 |
| 6GermanyE | 6.4% | 14.5% | 25.5% | 40.0% | 80.1% | 100% | 81.1% | 100% | 7.42 | 11.5 |
| 7PortugalK | 6.2% | 12.8% | 25.1% | 47.1% | 69.1% | 95.3% | 46.2% | 95.3% | 5.36 | 13.2 |
| 8NetherlandsF | 3.4% | 8.4% | 17.1% | 37.9% | 55.0% | 95.7% | 50.8% | 95.7% | 5.59 | 15.7 |
| 9BelgiumG | 2.2% | 6.7% | 16.9% | 37.3% | 67.0% | 96.6% | 67.5% | 96.6% | 5.76 | 14.2 |
| 10ColombiaK | 1.8% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 34.3% | 60.4% | 98.5% | 47.7% | 98.5% | 6.11 | 15.0 |
| 11UruguayH | 1.7% | 4.6% | 11.8% | 21.1% | 37.8% | 87.1% | 32.9% | 87.1% | 4.44 | 20.4 |
| 12MexicoA | 1.2% | 3.7% | 11.6% | 28.3% | 69.7% | 100% | 96.3% | 100% | 8.18 | 14.1 |
| 13USAD | 1.2% | 4.5% | 12.8% | 32.4% | 68.7% | 99.4% | 66.6% | 99.4% | 6.55 | 14.0 |
| 14CroatiaL | 1.2% | 4.0% | 10.7% | 20.9% | 43.5% | 87.6% | 2.7% | 87.6% | 4.48 | 19.6 |
| 15MoroccoC | 0.6% | 2.1% | 6.1% | 20.3% | 40.1% | 94.3% | 21.9% | 94.3% | 5.36 | 19.2 |
| 16SwitzerlandB | 0.4% | 1.9% | 5.8% | 23.4% | 59.8% | 100% | 37.3% | 100% | 5.42 | 15.7 |
| 17NorwayI | 0.4% | 1.5% | 5.5% | 17.4% | 49.7% | 97.2% | 13.3% | 97.2% | 4.99 | 17.8 |
| 18AustriaJ | 0.3% | 1.4% | 5.4% | 13.3% | 32.3% | 95.6% | 7.1% | 95.6% | 5.17 | 20.4 |
| 19JapanF | 0.3% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 14.4% | 31.7% | 83.6% | 18.4% | 83.6% | 4.48 | 22.3 |
| 20Ivory CoastE | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.3% | 11.6% | 43.2% | 98.4% | 18.3% | 98.4% | 6.05 | 18.8 |
| 21SenegalI | 0.2% | 0.7% | 3.0% | 10.8% | 30.4% | 69.9% | 0.8% | 69.9% | 3.39 | 24.9 |
| 22CanadaB | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 18.7% | 54.1% | 100% | 62.7% | 100% | 5.29 | 16.8 |
| 23SwedenF | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 14.5% | 34.1% | 98.0% | 30.4% | 98.0% | 5.04 | 19.8 |
| 24AustraliaD | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 12.2% | 50.8% | 96.6% | 29.9% | 96.6% | 5.69 | 18.1 |
| 25South KoreaA | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.6% | 12.3% | 39.3% | 93.0% | 3.7% | 93.0% | 4.87 | 20.1 |
| 26EcuadorE | 0.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 7.1% | 21.5% | 62.7% | 0.6% | 62.7% | 2.75 | 27.4 |
| 27IranG | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.7% | 21.3% | 58.5% | 13.2% | 58.5% | 3.21 | 28.3 |
| 28TurkeyD | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 15.8% | 47.0% | 2.5% | 47.0% | 2.60 | 30.8 |
| 29ScotlandC | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 20.0% | 82.7% | 8.7% | 82.7% | 4.28 | 24.5 |
| 30GhanaL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 16.8% | 75.7% | 3.3% | 75.7% | 4.01 | 26.1 |
| 31AlgeriaJ | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 12.8% | 51.5% | 0.1% | 51.5% | 2.84 | 30.5 |
| 32DR CongoK | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 11.8% | 58.2% | 5.7% | 58.2% | 3.20 | 29.6 |
| 33Saudi ArabiaH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 7.6% | 49.9% | 5.4% | 49.9% | 2.85 | 31.5 |
| 34QatarB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 6.2% | 31.2% | 0.0% | 31.2% | 2.24 | 34.7 |
| 35Czech RepublicA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.4% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 14.5% | 1.60 | 37.6 |
| 36EgyptG | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.4% | 25.8% | 77.6% | 16.7% | 77.6% | 4.15 | 24.7 |
| 37ParaguayD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 7.4% | 28.9% | 1.0% | 28.9% | 2.05 | 34.9 |
| 38Bosnia & HerzegovinaB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.6% | 39.0% | 0.0% | 39.0% | 2.46 | 33.1 |
| 39Cape VerdeH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 37.8% | 3.0% | 37.8% | 2.50 | 33.9 |
| 40CuraçaoE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 6.9% | 0.1% | 6.9% | 0.96 | 39.3 |
| 41HaitiC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.3% | 0.1% | 3.3% | 0.40 | 40.0 |
| 42IraqI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 0.77 | 39.4 |
| 43JordanJ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 38.9 |
| 44New ZealandG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.0% | 23.3% | 2.6% | 23.3% | 2.00 | 36.4 |
| 45PanamaL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 7.0% | 0.1% | 7.0% | 0.67 | 39.2 |
| 46South AfricaA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 20.4% | 0.0% | 20.4% | 1.86 | 36.6 |
| 47TunisiaF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 8.3% | 0.4% | 8.3% | 0.98 | 39.0 |
| 48UzbekistanK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 2.2% | 19.8% | 0.4% | 19.8% | 1.40 | 37.0 |
Tap a column header to sort. R32 = reached the knockout stage. xPts = expected group points.
Advancement matrix
| Team | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 100 | 70 | 28 | 12 | 4 | 1 |
| Switzerland | 100 | 60 | 23 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Canada | 100 | 54 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Argentina | 100 | 80 | 70 | 56 | 38 | 26 |
| France | 100 | 86 | 58 | 42 | 28 | 15 |
| Germany | 100 | 80 | 40 | 25 | 15 | 6 |
| England | 100 | 82 | 57 | 34 | 17 | 9 |
| Brazil | 99 | 75 | 59 | 37 | 21 | 12 |
| USA | 99 | 69 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 1 |
| Colombia | 99 | 60 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| Ivory Coast | 98 | 43 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Sweden | 98 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Norway | 97 | 50 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Belgium | 97 | 67 | 37 | 17 | 7 | 2 |
| Australia | 97 | 51 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Netherlands | 96 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 8 | 3 |
| Austria | 96 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Portugal | 95 | 69 | 47 | 25 | 13 | 6 |
| Spain | 95 | 61 | 41 | 30 | 16 | 8 |
| Morocco | 94 | 40 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| South Korea | 93 | 39 | 12 | 3 | 1 | · |
| Croatia | 88 | 44 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 |
| Uruguay | 87 | 38 | 21 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Japan | 84 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Scotland | 83 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Egypt | 78 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Ghana | 76 | 17 | 5 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Senegal | 70 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Ecuador | 63 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 0 | · |
| Iran | 58 | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | · |
| DR Congo | 58 | 12 | 3 | 1 | · | · |
| Algeria | 52 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Saudi Arabia | 50 | 8 | 2 | 0 | · | · |
| Turkey | 47 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 | · |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 39 | 9 | 2 | 0 | · | · |
| Cape Verde | 38 | 4 | 1 | · | · | · |
| Qatar | 31 | 6 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| Paraguay | 29 | 7 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| New Zealand | 23 | 3 | 0 | · | · | · |
| South Africa | 20 | 5 | 1 | · | · | · |
| Uzbekistan | 20 | 2 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Czech Republic | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | · | · |
| Jordan | 9 | 1 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Tunisia | 8 | 2 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Panama | 7 | 1 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Curaçao | 7 | 1 | · | · | · | · |
| Iraq | 6 | 1 | 0 | · | · | · |
| Haiti | 3 | 0 | · | · | · | · |