250,000 simulations
The Model
All 48 teams across every stage probability — sortable. Champion %, finalist %, reach-SF/QF/R16/R32, win-group %, expected group points and mean finish, from 250,000 simulations conditioned on results to date.
Live · 2026-07-20 · Day 40/39
Full forecast
| Team | Champion▼ | Final | SF | QF | R16 | R32 | Win grp | Advance | xPts | Finish | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1SpainH | 50.2% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 1.5 | |
| 2ArgentinaJ | 49.8% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.00 | 1.5 | |
| 3AlgeriaJ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 4AustraliaD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 5AustriaJ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 6BelgiumG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.00 | 6.5 | |
| 7Bosnia & HerzegovinaB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 8BrazilC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 12.5 | |
| 9CanadaB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 12.5 | |
| 10Ivory CoastE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 6.00 | 24.5 | |
| 11DR CongoK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 12ColombiaK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 12.5 | |
| 13Cape VerdeH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 3.00 | 24.5 | |
| 14CroatiaL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 6.00 | 24.5 | |
| 15CuraçaoE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 16Czech RepublicA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 17EcuadorE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 26.8% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 21.3 | |
| 18EgyptG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 5.00 | 12.5 | |
| 19EnglandL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 3.5 | |
| 20FranceI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.00 | 3.5 | |
| 21GermanyE | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.00 | 24.5 | |
| 22GhanaL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 23HaitiC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 24IranG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 40.5 | |
| 25IraqI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 26JordanJ | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 27JapanF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 5.00 | 24.5 | |
| 28South KoreaA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 40.5 | |
| 29Saudi ArabiaH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.00 | 40.5 | |
| 30MoroccoC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 7.00 | 6.5 | |
| 31MexicoA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 73.2% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.00 | 15.7 | |
| 32NetherlandsF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 24.5 | |
| 33NorwayI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 6.00 | 6.5 | |
| 34New ZealandG | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 35PanamaL | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 36ParaguayD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 12.5 | |
| 37PortugalK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 5.00 | 12.5 | |
| 38QatarB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.00 | 40.5 | |
| 39South AfricaA | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 40ScotlandC | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 40.5 | |
| 41SenegalI | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 3.00 | 24.5 | |
| 42SwitzerlandB | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 7.00 | 6.5 | |
| 43SwedenF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 0.0% | 100% | 4.00 | 24.5 | |
| 44TunisiaF | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 | |
| 45TurkeyD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.00 | 40.5 | |
| 46UruguayH | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.00 | 40.5 | |
| 47USAD | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 6.00 | 12.5 | |
| 48UzbekistanK | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 40.5 |
Tap a column header to sort. R32 = reached the knockout stage. xPts = expected group points.
Advancement matrix
| Team | Advance | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 50 |
| Argentina | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 50 |
| Algeria | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Australia | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Austria | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Belgium | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · | · |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Brazil | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| Canada | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| Ivory Coast | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| DR Congo | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Colombia | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| Cape Verde | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Croatia | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ecuador | 100 | 27 | · | · | · | · |
| Egypt | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| England | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · |
| France | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · |
| Germany | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Ghana | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Japan | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Morocco | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · | · |
| Mexico | 100 | 73 | · | · | · | · |
| Netherlands | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Norway | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · | · |
| Paraguay | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| Portugal | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| South Africa | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Senegal | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Switzerland | 100 | 100 | 100 | · | · | · |
| Sweden | 100 | · | · | · | · | · |
| USA | 100 | 100 | · | · | · | · |
| Curaçao | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Czech Republic | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Haiti | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Iran | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Iraq | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Jordan | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| South Korea | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Saudi Arabia | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| New Zealand | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Panama | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Qatar | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Scotland | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tunisia | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Turkey | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Uruguay | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Uzbekistan | · | · | · | · | · | · |