Day 40 of 39 · 250,000 simulations
World Cup '26
A self-updating forecast for the men's World Cup — refreshed every morning and conditioned on every result so far.
The contenders
Spain
to lift the trophy
Probability of winning
48
Nations
104
Matches
250K
Sims / morning
40
Day of 39
The title race
Every contender, every morning
Champion % · by day| Team | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-13 | 2026-06-14 | 2026-06-15 | 2026-06-16 | 2026-06-17 | 2026-06-18 | 2026-06-19 | 2026-06-20 | 2026-06-21 | 2026-06-22 | 2026-06-23 | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-25 | 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-27 | 2026-06-28 | 2026-06-29 | 2026-06-30 | 2026-07-01 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-03 | 2026-07-04 | 2026-07-05 | 2026-07-06 | 2026-07-07 | 2026-07-08 | 2026-07-09 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-11 | 2026-07-12 | 2026-07-13 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-16 | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-19 | 2026-07-20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 10.6 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 11.2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 18.7 | 18.2 | 17.9 | 14.9 | 23.8 | 21.3 | 21.2 | 21.3 | 51.1 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | 43.6 | 50.2 |
| Argentina | 21.7 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 22.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 26.0 | 25.7 | 26.1 | 26.4 | 26.0 | 28.2 | 30.5 | 30.4 | 29.3 | 29.7 | 32.7 | 34.2 | 26.9 | 32.3 | 31.1 | 31.2 | 30.2 | 30.5 | 30.6 | 34.7 | 33.6 | 37.8 | 37.9 | 33.5 | 32.4 | 37.6 | 37.8 | 37.6 | 36.0 | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.5 | 56.4 | 49.8 |
| Algeria | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Australia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Austria | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Belgium | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Brazil | 15.8 | 15.9 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 19.0 | 17.2 | 15.3 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Field | 48.9 | 48.5 | 50.4 | 49.7 | 50.8 | 51.8 | 49.8 | 50.6 | 50.6 | 50.0 | 51.2 | 48.3 | 46.9 | 47.4 | 47.1 | 46.0 | 42.0 | 41.6 | 43.7 | 39.6 | 43.0 | 43.4 | 43.1 | 42.9 | 42.6 | 53.5 | 43.7 | 40.2 | 40.3 | 48.8 | 43.8 | 41.1 | 41.0 | 41.1 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Latest results · Sun, Jul 19
Day 40 Recap
Spain 1-0 Argentina — the final's decided by a single goal, and it's an upset: Argentina walked in as the pre-match favorite and walked out beaten.
A 1-0 scoreline is the tightest possible margin, and it flipped the entire championship picture in one result.
Stat of the day
Goal-fest watch: Spain 1–0 Argentina led the day for goals.
Daily briefing
The Story of Day 40
One match, one goal, and the tournament's power balance tipped. Spain edged Argentina 1-0, toppling the pre-match favorite and claiming the day's lone upset. In a final this tight, the smallest margin was always going to be decisive — and it was.
The model now splits the title virtually down the middle: Spain at 50.2%, Argentina at 49.8%. That 0.4-point sliver is the direct product of today's result, which moved Spain +6.65 points and dragged Argentina the same distance the other way. These two sides are the entire conversation — every other contender sits at 0.0%.
With the field reduced to a straight two-horse race, there's nowhere left to hide. Spain has the edge and the win in hand, but Argentina remains a coin-flip away. Whatever comes next, the margins are as thin as they get.
Did you know
- Spain beat pre-match favorite Argentina 1-0 — the only result on Day 40 and a flagged upset.
- Spain now leads the title race at 50.2%, edging Argentina's 49.8% — a razor-thin 0.4-point gap.
- The Spain win swung the championship probability 6.65 points in each direction — Spain up, Argentina down.
- Spain and Argentina control 100% of the model's championship probability; no other side registers above 0.0%.
- A single goal separated the two finalists — the narrowest possible winning margin.
Shape of the day · Dark horses
Takeaway Beyond the favourites, the chasing pack outside the top four is holding station since 2026-06-11.
Jun 28 – Jul 3 ET
Round of 32
16 of 16 set
Jul 4–7 ET
Round of 16
7 of 8 set
Jul 19 ET
🏆 The Final
MetLife Stadium · New York/New Jersey