Live forecast · Day 9 / 39 · 2026-06-19
World Cup '26
A self-updating World Cup 2026 forecast — 40,000 deterministic simulations, refreshed every morning and conditioned on every result so far.
The contenders
Argentina
to lift the trophy
Latest results · Fri, Jun 19
Day 9 Recap
One match on the card, and it delivered a clean result: Mexico 1-0 South Korea. The favorite held serve — no upset, no drama, just a tidy one-goal margin that nudged Mexico's title odds up +0.18 pts.
A quiet day on the pitch, but the model still reshuffled its contenders behind the scenes.
Stat of the day
Goal-fest watch: Mexico 1–0 South Korea led the day for goals.
Daily briefing
The Story
Day 9 offered a single fixture, and Mexico handled their business — a 1-0 win over South Korea that protected the favorite's status and lifted Mexico +0.18 pts in the title race. No upset, no surprises on the grass.
The more interesting motion came in the model's projections. Argentina strengthened its position at the top, rising +0.44 pts to 26.1% — now the clear frontrunner, sitting nearly 11 points clear of France at 15.4%. Behind them, the chasing pack lost ground: England fell -0.69 pts to 9.3% and Brazil dropped -0.58 pts to 12.5%, the two largest declines of the day.
Elsewhere, the model nudged up a cluster of dark horses — Uruguay (+0.32), Belgium (+0.24), and Portugal (+0.23) all gained, while France held nearly flat (+0.07) in third tier of the top contenders.
With the bracket tightening, Argentina's lead looks increasingly commanding, but the gap from France down through Spain at 8.2% remains compressed enough that a single result can reorder the table.
Did you know
- Argentina extended its grip on favorite status, climbing to **26.1%** — a +0.44 pt gain and the day's biggest riser among elite contenders.
- England took the hardest hit, shedding **-0.69 pts** to slip to 9.3% — the largest drop on the board.
- Mexico's 1-0 win over South Korea bumped its title odds **+0.18 pts**, the day's only result.
- Argentina's 26.1% now nearly doubles second-placed France at 15.4%.
- Brazil dipped **-0.58 pts** to 12.5%, the second-steepest fall of the day.
Up next · 2026-06-20
Most likely scoreline 4-0 · xG 4.2–0.4
Most likely scoreline 1-1 · xG 1.5–1.1
Most likely scoreline 1-1 · xG 2.0–0.9
Most likely scoreline 2-0 · xG 2.1–0.9