← The Daily
Round of 32Match 79
Mexico
vsScheduled
Ecuador
Wednesday, July 1, 20269:00 PM EDT1:00 AM UTCEstadio Azteca, Mexico City
Prediction
61%Level after 90' 24%15%
If level: extra time, then penalties.
61%
Mexico
24%
Level after 90'
15%
Ecuador
Expected goals 1.98 – 0.90
Scoreline distribution
↓ Mexico goalsEcuador goals →
0123450
7
4
2
1
0
0
110
11
5
1
0
0
211
10
5
1
0
0
37
7
3
1
0
0
44
3
1
0
0
0
51
1
1
0
0
0
Cells show probability (%). Gold outline = most likely scoreline.
Woodwork Watch
Post & crossbar · 90 minutes
33%
Mexico hits the frame
30%
Ecuador hits the frame
54%
Either
9.7%
Both
≈0.76 clangsposts 66% / bar 34%peak 76–90'heartbreak 38%0×46% 1×36% 2×14% 3+×4.1%
Simulated 20,000 times, minute by minute — trailing sides swing harder and shoot from range; leading sides sit in. For fun, not physics.
Recent form
Mexico
- W3–0vs Czech Republic
- W1–0vs South Korea
- W2–0vs South Africa
Ecuador
- W2–1vs Germany
- D0–0vs Curaçao
- L0–1vs Ivory Coast